Here are the states: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Utah. The most competitive races, with predicted margins of under 5 points, are expected to be in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. Though Republicans have put forward weak candidates in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia, the wind is behind their backs heading into November 8. Nov. 9, 2022, The Senate races in Georgia, Nevada and Arizona are very tight, and vote counting is expected to drag into the week. Note: Includes special elections held during year of election or during previous year. Theres no way that theyre going to be able to reposition him over the next year and a half. You deserve to hear our thinking. Nov. 9, 2022, Democratic House candidates outperformed Biden in several Michigan districts, bucking a rightward trend and maintaining seven of their seats. 2020 comparison maps exclude places where third-party candidates won more than 5 percent of the vote. The party that wins two of the Out of 170 races contested by both major parties, 43% were decided by a margin of 20 points or more, 28% were decided by a margin of 10-20 points, and 15% were decided by a margin of 5-10 points. It was really a late-covid manifestation, and as covid has receded in peoples lives, the conditions that created that conversation have evaporated. In Virginia, the performances of Democratic incumbents in the 2nd and 7th districts may offer early indications of how the party will fare in House races overall. at POLITICO, US midterms 2022 Results Senate House Democrats retain control of the Senate Republican hopes of picking up seats in Arizona and Nevada fall short House Click here to change which version of the model you see. The polls are now closed in Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia and Vermont, and in parts of Florida and New Hampshire. The predictions for races expected to be relatively close, with predicted margins of less than 10 points, were only correct a little over two-thirds of the time. Even though Democratic presidential candidates won the national popular vote in all 3 presidential elections between 2012 and 2020, Republican presidential candidates carried 93 of the 174 states with Senate contests during these years a success rate of just over 53%. Nov. 9, 2022, The feared Democratic collapse along the Rio Grande didnt materialize. Nov. 8, 2022, Gov. Ron DeSantis, a hard-right conservative, is facing Representative Charlie Crist, a former Republican governor who switched parties. RCP House Map Race Changes. WebDemocrats will hold 51 seats in the Senate, providing the party with a majority that likely wont have to rely as heavily on Vice President Kamala Harris tie-breaking vote. Albert Sun Elissa Slotkin, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Michigans Seventh Congressional District. In all likelihood that will be the case again in 2022 a handful of close contests will decide which party controls the upper chamber. An edited and condensed version of our conversation follows. , Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, defeated Doug Mastriano, a Trump-backed election denier, in the race for Pennsylvanias governor. Nov. 8, 2022, The Georgia Senate race, which could go to a Dec. 6 runoff, could determine which party controls the chamber. The Associated Press has not called New Yorks race for governor but Gov. Manage Settings Speaking of DeSantiss rightward lurch, Bidens reelection video cites GOP book bans and attacks on LGBTQ rights as threats to American freedom and equality. This finding indicates that Republican candidates have underperformed in Senate elections relative to what we would have expected based on state presidential partisanship, incumbency, and election type. Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia is one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the Senate. Our newest ratings and updates, . Representative Sean Patrick Maloney has conceded defeat to Mike Lawler, a first-term Republican state assemblyman. WebBattle for the Senate 2022. Ruth Igielnik Odds displayed in the graphics may not match numeric odds due to rounding. Box 400806 Charlottesville, VA 22904. First, as one would expect, the larger the predicted margin of victory, the likelier the prediction is to be correct. Beyond the wins and losses, another prominent aspect of recent Senate elections is the overall lack of competition. RCP Average 0 Days to Election Day. Democratic candidates won the large majority of contests in 2012 and 2018 while Republicans won the large majority of contests in 2014, 2016, and 2020. I talked with Rosenberg, who writes the Hopium Chronicles newsletter on Substack, about his optimism for 2024. These results suggest that Republicans have a slight edge in the 2022 Senate elections when it comes to potential seat swing based on the fundamentals in these races. This work really does have to be done, right? . Senate elections in California (2016 and 2018), Alabama (2014), and Arkansas (2020) were excluded because there were not 2 major-party candidates in the general election. We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. Click here!, Click here for the National 2022 Senate Forecast, 2024 PollsPresidential ElectionSenateGOP PrimaryDem PrimaryBiden Approval Rating Tracker. November 8 Tonight, our election forecast will show live estimates for which party is favored to win control in the Senate and House. Republican John Duarte has inched in front of moderate Democrat Adam Gray, despite the fact this Central Valley district went for President Joe Biden by 11 points in 2020. Our Senate forecast is based on past results, polling data and the current vote count. Democrats now hold a tiny Senate majority in large part because of their superior performance in otherwise Republican-leaning states, a performance they may find difficult to sustain because of deepening partisan polarization. We got to 55 percent in Michigan. The 2022 Missouri State Senate election took place on November 8, 2022, as part of the biennial 2022 United States elections. . Nov. 14, 2022, With Senator Cortez Mastos victory in Nevada, Democrats will retain Senate control, even if Republicans win a run-off election in Georgia. . These contests should be regarded as Toss-ups. We analyzed every House, Senate and gubernatorial seat to determine who we think will win the 2022 midterm elections. Incumbent: Republican Rob Portman (retiring) Trumps strength in Ohio In 2022, we saw Democrats grow their vote percentages in seven battleground states. For more, explore our 2024 GOP Primary polling average. Arizonas Senate race is a currently tossup, according to our estimates. 3 See also. The most recent examples of Republican candidates losing races they should have won occurred in 2020 when the GOP lost 2 contests in Georgia and another in Arizona by margins ranging from 1-3 points that they should have won by about 7 points according to our model. Steve outlines the four factors that have made control of the Senate a coin flip. Brian Kemp gained more votes compared to Trump in 2020 all across Georgia, beating Stacey Abrams by a more than seven-point margin. Abortion rights fired up Democratic voters, and MAGAs hostility toward democracy and embrace of Donald Trump drove swing voters away from the GOP, puncturing the red-wave fantasy. WebTexas Senate: With Democrats on Defense, Lone Star State Is a Reach Jessica Taylor March 29, 2023 Members Only Senate Overview The Looming Senate GOP Primary Wars Jessica Taylor March 7, 2023 Members Only Michigan Senate Michigan Senate: With Slotkin Announcement, Democrats Look to Avoid Primary Jessica Taylor February 28, Maggie Astor Nov. 9, 2022, While the race for Georgias senate seat remains extremely tight, the Governors race was decided last night. Redistricting will change everything. Three independent candidates Bernie Sanders (VT), Angus King (ME) and Greg Orman (KS) are classified as Democrats. GOP Sen. Ron Johnson is running for a third term making him the only Republican seeking reelection in a state President Biden won in 2020. This is not a time to be defensive. Miles Coleman, and Larry J. Sabato. GOP Rep. David Rouzer is coasting to reelection. Your guide to the midterm results, from Times reporters, Democrats held onto or gained trifectas in a number of states and fended off Republican supermajorities in others. In several of these races, the discrepancy between the predicted and actual results was quite large. Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker are on a November collision course in the most closely divided state of the 2020 presidential election. Current Senate Our Senate Election Forecast has been upgraded into a Live Election Forecast that will predict every Senate race in the Nation using the latest data from the election results. Eight of those counties that voted for Biden in 2020 shifted 16 points to the right in the race for governor, and 12 points in the Senate race. v. t. e. The 2022 United States Senate election in Illinois was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Illinois . Table 3 summarizes the accuracy of these predictions based on a variety of characteristics including the year of the election, the party predicted to win, incumbent vs. open seat contests, and the predicted margin of victory. Alicia Parlapiano If you would like to change your settings or withdraw consent at any time, the link to do so is in our privacy policy accessible from our home page.. Maura Healey, the newly elected Democratic governor of Massachusetts is the first openly lesbian woman to be elected governor in the United States. We got to 59 percent in Colorado in 2022. State presidential partisanship was also a powerful predictor of Senate election results during these years, reflecting the increasing nationalization of these contests. Karen Tumulty: Biden defines the central question of the 2024 election. Aside from that, the main action at this hour will be in the House, with a close race in Washingtons 8th District and at least half a dozen in California. We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. I'm Steve Shepard, and with the help of my smart colleagues Along with the powerful influence of presidential partisanship, incumbency continues to have a substantial impact on Senate elections, with the average incumbent adding about 8 points of margin to her partys expected vote. Here are my predictions how the races will pan out and some points of caution Democrats should note to secure the Senate in 2022. Finally, there is a clear midterm effect on Senate elections, with candidates from the party occupying the White House experiencing an average penalty of 5.4 points of margin. The consent submitted will only be used for data processing originating from this website. By doing that, hes going to create a permission structure for the whole Democratic Party to follow him. We also have a Live Forecast for the House. To view the purposes they believe they have legitimate interest for, or to object to this data processing use the vendor list link below. Polls Underestimated. Vance in the returns, but almost all of the results are early votes, which we expect to disproportionately favor Democrats. We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. Web1 Predictions. The candidate listed may change based on primary results or other factors. It could be awhile before all votes are counted. Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly has opened a lead over Republican Blake Masters. But in many of the most consequential statewide races, Democrats enter Election Day still in the hunt thanks to their candidates strong fundraising and polls that show, for now, they are running ahead of President Joe Bidens poor approval ratings. 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. Two of the biggest discrepancies between actual and predicted vote margins involved the same candidate: West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin. . Republicans' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat. Beto ORourke performed better than expected in these majority-Hispanic counties. Ron DeSantis won re-election in Florida, cementing Republicans power in a state that was once a key battleground. Web2022. The media has given Oz and Walker plenty of attention as the GOPs worst Senate candidates, but Johnson might be right Follow the latest election results here . According to the results displayed in Table 5, only a small minority of Senate contests in 2022 are likely to be highly competitive. Republicans successfully defended 12 of their 16 open seats for a success rate of 75% while Democrats successfully defended 12 of their 17 open seats for a success rate of 71%. The Times estimates the share of votes reported and the number of remaining votes, based on historic turnout data and reporting from results providers. . Nevadas Senate race is rated a tossup by the Cook Political Report. These numbers reflect first-choice votes, After the midterms, America and its democracy look stronger, A Republican victory will be much smaller than Democrats feared. Nov. 8, 2022, Democrat Tim Ryan leads Republican J.D. We expect the remaining vote that will decide control of Congress will take days, if not weeks, to count. Nov. 8, 2022. Nov. 8, 2022, Its still early, but Fetterman is running ahead of Biden in five Pennsylvania counties that have reported nearly all of their votes. An even greater discrepancy between predicted and actual results occurred in the 2017 Alabama special election in which ultra-conservative former state Supreme Court justice Roy Moore won a runoff primary against appointed incumbent Luther Strange to win the Republican nomination. First, DeSantis has to win the primary, which doesnt look very likely at this point. Because Alaska uses ranked choice voting, we may not know the winner until Nov. 23. Im Fivey Fox! Republicans' late primary complicates their quest to oust Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan in the nation's smallest swing state. See the Senate forecast * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous Visit. The Associated Press also provides estimates for the share of votes reported, which are shown for races for which The Times does not publish its own estimates. The Rio Grande Valley swung sharply to the right in the last election. All indications are that both Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are planning to run for President, and we are tracking the latest polling nationally and in every state. *Alaskas Senate race uses ranked-choice voting. His Republican challenger, Herschel Walker, is backed by Donald Trump. The Timess election results pages are produced by Michael Andre, Aliza Aufrichtig, Kristen Bayrakdarian, Neil Berg, Matthew Bloch, Vronique Brossier, Irineo Cabreros, Sean Catangui, Andrew Chavez, Nate Cohn, Lindsey Rogers Cook, Alastair Coote, Annie Daniel, Saurabh Datar, Avery Dews, Asmaa Elkeurti, Tiffany Fehr, Andrew Fischer, Lazaro Gamio, Martn Gonzlez Gmez, Will Houp, Jon Huang, Samuel Jacoby, Jason Kao, Josh Katz, Aaron Krolik, Jasmine C. Lee, Vivian Li, Rebecca Lieberman, Ilana Marcus, Alicia Parlapiano, Jaymin Patel, Marcus Payadue, Matt Ruby, Rachel Shorey, Charlie Smart, Umi Syam, Jaime Tanner, James Thomas, Urvashi Uberoy, Ege Uz, Isaac White and Christine Zhang. Eight counties that voted Yes on the proposal also voted for the Republican candidate for governor, Tudor Dixon. , Senator Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire was re-elected, holding on to one of Democrats most vulnerable seats in a tight contest for Senate control. Democratic Rep. Ami Bera is still a heavy favorite, but his party appears set to lose ground in California. Is the nations political realignment driving a state or congressional district from one partys column to the other? Alicia Parlapiano Wisconsins Senate race is leaning toward Senator Ron Johnson, his chambers most endangered Republican incumbent, according to our estimates. We and our partners share information on your use of this website to help improve your experience. However, this has become increasingly difficult, as partisan polarization has deepened. Some of our partners may process your data as a part of their legitimate business interest without asking for consent. Senate Seats By Forecast Model Created & Designed by Logan Phillipsif(typeof ez_ad_units!='undefined'){ez_ad_units.push([[728,90],'racetothewh_com-medrectangle-3','ezslot_3',639,'0','0'])};__ez_fad_position('div-gpt-ad-racetothewh_com-medrectangle-3-0'); Looking for the National Picture for the 2022 Senate Forecast? The Associated Press has not yet called the race. 2022 United States Senate election in Missouri, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2022_Missouri_State_Senate_election&oldid=1152538134, 2022 state legislature elections in the United States, Short description with empty Wikidata description, Wikipedia articles in need of updating from April 2023, All Wikipedia articles in need of updating, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0, This page was last edited on 30 April 2023, at 21:09. Maggie Astor WebPredictions for Every 2022 Senate Race by one of the Nation's Most Accurate Forecasters in 2020. Another 15%, about 5 per election cycle, were decided by a margin of less than 5 points. Tonight: follow live results and our forecast from Georgia as the final Senate seat in the 2022 midterm elections is decided. We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. Voters in Kentucky narrowly rejected an amendment to the State Constitution that would have said there is no right to abortion in their state. Todays voting will decide the balance of power in Congress. Montana voters rejected a proposal that would have required medical interventions to save those that the state defines as born alive infants. Steve Shepard, our chief forecaster, has settled on four core principles However, there was a noticeable discrepancy between the success rates of Republican and Democratic candidates in states won by their partys presidential candidate. Democrats launched a late ad campaign hitting Republican Eric Aadland, who is seeking to become first alphabetically in congressional history by last name. Four counties all of which supported Trump in 2020 voted for Shapiro but chose Dr. Oz, the Republican, for the Senate. Nov. 9, 2022, With more counties nearly finished counting, things keep looking better for Lt. Gov. Gov. Looking for Bidens Approval Rating Map? Late victories in Nevada and Arizona deal another blow to the Republicans, and to Donald Trump, On top of his other flaws, the former president is a serial vote loser, Several sorts of extremism may have prevented the party from securing a more convincing victory, In a reverse of recent trends, they may have slightly underestimated Democrats, Published since September 1843 to take part in a severe contest between intelligence, which presses forward, and an unworthy, timid ignorance obstructing our progress.. Democratic Gov. Polls are now closed in Hawaii. All 3 predictors had highly significant effects, with state presidential partisanship having the strongest influence. Rep. Ted Budd of North Carolina, a Trump-backed conservative, beat Cheri Beasley, a Democrat, to capture retiring Senator Richard Burr's seat. Nov. 9, 2022, House districts rated as tossups have been called mostly in favor of Democrats so far, with one state as a glaring exception: New York. Most of the vote reporting so far is early, and Democrats are expected to win those votes by a large margin. We rated every race in play in 2022. RCP Senate Map Race Changes. Our model currently predicts that Republicans have a 59.3% chance of controlling the Senate. contact info. , Brad Raffensperger, Republican, is re-elected as Georgias secretary of state. House Democrats' most iconoclastic member, Rep. Jared Golden, is betting his brand of centrism can overcome a challenging political environment. He's happy to chat about weather forecasting too. Republican candidates won 83 out of 170 contested Senate races between 2012 and 2020, but the prediction model indicates that they should have won 91. Two findings stand out in this table. Chris Pappas, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent New Hampshires First Congressional District. Contact Steve at [emailprotected]. That leaves Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania in the middle. Nate Cohn 3 See also. Follow along here In Wisconsin, Senator Ron Johnson, a Republican, is up for re-election against Lt. Gov. To read recent stories on the race for the Senate, click here. Mourdock gained national notoriety for his comment that when a woman becomes pregnant as a result of rape, it is something that God intended, and went on to lose the general election to a moderate Democrat, Joe Donnelly. Now, with President Biden announcing his reelection bid, Rosenberg is similarly arguing that despite Bidens age and anemic approval ratings, he is in a strong position to win in 2024 and possibly win big. Based on the accuracy of the predictions for elections between 2012 and 2020, we can have a high degree of confidence in the outcomes of races in which the predicted margin is greater than 10 points but less confidence if the predicted margin is less than 10 points. Republicans and MAGA have left a lot of political real estate for us to go claim if we are aggressive about it. We just got all the way up to 55 percent in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race. Updated Every Day with the Latest Polling. The Republican nominee, Richard Mourdock, a staunch conservative, defeated the more moderate incumbent, Richard Lugar, in the GOP primary. Janet Mills of Maine. Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne survived 2020, despite Donald Trump carrying her Des Moines-based district. John Fetterman. Nov. 8, 2022, The shift to the right has been dramatic among counties in Florida reporting nearly all their votes. We use early returns and polling data to estimate in real time the outcome of the elections for Senate and House control. Vermont- this state has consistently voted for Democrat senators and the incumbent Patrick Leahy has been serving since 1974. Hes outperforming Biden across the state and is currently up 8 points in counties that were the closest in 2020. Albert Sun This finding reflects the increasing nationalization of Senate elections in the 21st century. Its giving Yesli Vega, the Republican candidate, an edge over incumbent Abigail Spanberger, though this could be temporary. , Gov. Nov. 10, 2022, In Texas, majority-Hispanic counties also swung to the right, but to a much lesser degree than in Florida. Kathy Hochul claimed victory late Tuesday against Representative Lee Zeldin, a conservative Republican. , Gov. Vance won Ohio handily even as almost every part of the state voted more for Democrats than they did in 2020. This discrepancy reflects the small state bias of the Senate, which results in an overrepresentation of Republican-leaning states. Republican Mehmet Oz is seeking to close a deficit with Democrat John Fetterman in the open-seat race. Nov. 10, 2022, As of noon Eastern time, Democrats have won 190 House seats, Republicans have won 208, and 37 are still undecided. Nov. 9, 2022, Democrats and Republicans each need to win three more competitive Senate seats to win control of the chamber (in addition to the races they are expected to win most easily). Its about 15 months for the mid-term elections in the United States. Nov. 9, 2022, Maryland and Missouri voted to legalize recreational marijuana for people 21 and older, while voters in Arkansas, North Dakota and South Dakota rejected similar measures. Web1 Predictions. Particularly in the 2 decisive Georgia Senate runoffs held in early January 2021, Donald Trumps visibility and highly publicized claims of widespread voting fraud involving absentee ballots may have served to motivate Democratic voters while suppressing turnout among some Republican voters concerned that their votes would not be accurately counted. * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements. You seem to be suggesting that to grow further, just campaigning on abortion rights and attacking MAGA extremism isnt enough: There has to be something more proactive and positive to really expand the coalition. , Don Bacon, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Nebraskas Second Congressional District. The Democrats should not focus much attention on these states and instead focus on the other states assuming they are on a mission to secure 60 seats, to prevent filibustering of bills. The forecast will shift to account for which party is consistently doing better across the country compared to our projections, and calculate the chance both have of winning the majority. Depending on how many people vote Democrat in New Orleans, there is an outside chance for this seat to flip to the Democrats. Abortion clearly shifted the playing field in some of these places, and so did the MAGA extremism of some of the GOP candidates. Note: Win probabilities may not add up to 100 because of third-party candidates. Democrats are hoping to pick up seats in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Ohio, while Republicans have pinned their hopes on races in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. In a previous article in the Crystal Ball, I examined the outlook for the 2022 House and Senate elections at the national level based on the generic ballot forecasting model. Republicans have won in four of five New York tossup seats, and the Republican candidate is ahead in the fifth. I then applied the findings from these earlier elections to the 35 contests taking place this year in order to predict their outcomes. Tonight: follow live results and our forecast from Georgia as the final Senate seat in the 2022 midterm elections is decided. Now the the crux of this article these are states that can go either way. Along with explaining 84% of the variance in Senate election margins, the 3 variable model correctly predicted the winner of 154 of 170 contested races between 2012 and 2020. Despite endless hopeful invocations of but polls show that people like our positions, the truth is that the Democratic Party has been pulled far enough left that even lots of non-crazy people find us just plain scary something that Fox News takes vigorous advantage of. Based on New York Times/Siena College polls in four states. In these elections, it was not the unpopularity of the GOP challengers that explained the discrepancies, but Manchins extraordinary popularity as a former governor and relatively conservative Democrat. Click here! In both 2012 and 2018, Manchin far outperformed the expected vote for a Democratic candidate in a state that Donald Trump carried twice by enormous margins. While it is not enough to prevent filibustering, the 4 rational Republicans (Collins, Murkowski, Romney and Sasse) shall helped by preventing unwanted filibuster abuse. Based on the fundamentals of state partisanship, incumbency, and the national political environment, Republicans have a good chance to pick up at least a seat and take back control of the upper chamber. Michiganders are voting on abortion rights. Figure 1: Scatterplots of seat change by predicted seat change in House and Senate midterm elections, 1946-2018 Source: Data compiled by author Conditional forecasts for the 2022 midterms
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